Think tank sees Aquino victory, warns of tough job ahead

   

MANILA, Philippines—There is now only a slim chance that no winner will be proclaimed after the May 10 elections but the presidency may not prove to be a light crown to wear for front-running presidential candidate Senator Benigno Aquino III, according to the US-based think tank Global Source.

“In contrast to a failure of automation, which seems almost certain to happen in some parts of the country given the sheer difficulty of the exercise (moving from manual to automated national elections) and the apparent lack of preparedness of the government, a no-proclamation scenario can be no more than a 10 percent chance particularly if there is a convincing lead where a faulty count in parts of the country will not greatly influence the overall result,” Global Source said in a quarterly report on the Philippines dated April 27.

In its commentary, titled “Hope Versus Fear,” Global Source said Aquino as of now appeared to be the most likely to win the presidential race as his widening lead in the past survey was too large a chasm to overcome even with acknowledged superiority of Senator Manuel Villar’s campaign in logistics and political machinery at the local level.

Via Inquirer.net

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Noynoy confident Villar can’t cut lead

Tacloban City — What command votes? From Maguindanao?

Liberal Party standard-bearer Sen. Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino III yesterday threw this question at the Nacionalista Party as he dismissed its claim that NP presidential candidate Sen. Manuel Villar would still be able to catch up with him come election day.

In press briefing, Aquino described a “a figment of their imagination” Sen. Alan Peter Cayetano’s claim that the NP would still be able to cut down Aquino’s 12 percentage point lead over Villar through the latter’s political machinery and the support of groups that practice block voting.

Via Inquirer.net

Still Roxas-Legarda fight

MANILA, Philippines—Another pre-poll survey showed that the vice presidential race was still between Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino’s running mate, Manuel “Mar” Roxas II, and Manuel “Manny” Villar’s partner, Loren Legarda.

Ed Malay, director of The Issues and Advocacy Center (The Center), on Tuesday said Roxas remained in the lead with 37 percent while Legarda claimed second spot with 28 percent.

However, he said, “the campaign of Senator Roxas appeared to have rammed into a concrete wall amidst disturbing reports that a group within the Aquino-Roxas campaign machinery had dumped Roxas in favor of Makati Mayor Jejomar Binay.”

Via Inquirer.net

AND: Artists unite for Noynoy-Mar.

Inquirer Opinions

   

Editorial: Campaign violence

If news is “anything new under the sun,” then election-related violence in the Philippines would not count for news. In this country, violence comes with every election so that what would be news is if no violent incident marred the campaign season. In fact, with less than a month to go before this year’s elections, political violence has erupted in many places across the land—to nobody’s surprise. With some 170 private armies on the loose (by official count) and 558 cities and towns identified as by the police as “hot spots,” not to mention guns for hire and criminal syndicates that admittedly could be used to quickly remove obstacles to one’s ambition, it takes very little to spark violence.

After the most gruesome massacre in Ampatuan, Maguindanao, last Nov. 23, we thought political warlords could not do anything more to make the 2010 elections the worst, if most violent, elections in Philippine history. And not just because the massacre was more than enough to confer that ignominious distinction. More importantly, because it forced the hand of government to make long overdue moves against private armies—or so we thought.

via INQUIRER.net.

‘Posible’
Theres The Rub
By Conrado de Quiros

Poor Gilbert “Gibo” Teodoro, it must be a lonely place where he’s at right now. Though I don’t know why he couldn’t have foreseen something like this happening to him.

His was a lost cause from the start. It wasn’t just that he would have been a fool to expect his patron to be true to her word, though there’s that, too. What did he think, the person who could not be true to her vow that she would back out of 2004 would be true to her vow that she would never back out of him? You believe things like that, you should not be a politician, you should be a Pollyanna.

But it’s not just her, it’s him too. Gibo’s campaign pitch was not unlike that of Manny Villar, one that seemed to hold possibilities but was really self-defeating, or self-refuting, in the end. Villar’s pitch was that he was one of the poor, one with the poor, and one for the poor, a pitch that was refuted by a campaign whose very extravagance showed him to be one of the rich, one with the rich, and one only for himself. Teodoro’s own pitch was that he was the most intelligent among the lot, a pitch refuted by the fact that he was an Arroyo protégé. As people kept saying, “Matalino pala siya, ba’t s’ya na kay Gloria?” That perception is a career-breaker.

Click Conrado de Quiros

Making a distinction
At Large
By Rina Jimenez-David

With the so-called “psychiatric evaluation” by the Ateneo de Manila University of candidate Sen. Bengino “Noynoy” Aquino III having been exposed as an outright fraud, one hoped that the matter ended there.

But Aquino’s main rival Sen. Manny Villar insists on raking up the bogus “findings,” calling on all presidential aspirants to submit to psychological evaluations that would determine their “fitness for office.” At the same time, Villar’s Nacionalista Party seeks to distance itself from the report, or the sources who allegedly made it available to the media. This is strange, because if the NP believes the document is spurious and throws doubt on the mental honesty of those behind its release, which explains their hand-washing, then why is Villar still issuing a call based on its false and manufactured findings?

Click Rina Jimenez David

Bogus report brings psycho issue to fore
Political Tidbits
By Belinda Olivares-Cunanan

To some observers I’ve talked to, this document seemed tailored to be denied, but the question is, who floated it? An ABS-CBN source said it was obtained from two Nacionalista Party sources, but the NP, deemed by the Liberal Party the “usual suspect” of any black prop against Noynoy, denied it. But it’s hard to imagine that the NP would commit such a blunder, as the document really looks fake. And surely the NP knows that Caluag, a classmate of Noynoy in the Ateneo, sits in the ABS-CBN’s board and regularly co-hosts a dzMM radio show wearing his signature yellow attire. Surely he would lose no time denying authorship.

The theory that seems to be gaining currency among observers is that it could have been the Noynoy camp itself that floated that report so it could deny it, in anticipation of an authentic report on his psychiatric state about to come out. Former Sen. Ernesto Maceda, who was in exile in the US at the same time that the Aquino family was in the latter part of the Marcos era and is the current handler of Joseph Estrada, was the first to raise this issue in his Daily Tribune column. Coffee-shop habitués theorize that if an authentic document on Noynoy’s psychiatric health in the past were to surface now, it would be easier for his camp to deny it after that bogus report.

Click Belinda Olivares Cunanan

Palace defends martial law declaration

MANILA, Philippines – Despite the dismissal of the rebellion case against former governor Andal Ampatuan Sr. and six others, Malacañang said there was justification for its declaration of a weeklong martial law in Maguindanao in the wake of the Nov. 23 slaughter of 57 journalists, lawyers and members of a political clan.

“We continue to stand by the public policy wisdom of the declaration of martial law in Maguindanao, if you look at the positive outcomes from that declaration as well as the manner it was conducted,” deputy presidential spokesman Gary Olivar said.

Olivar noted that Quezon City Judge Vivencio Baclig, in his decision, merely ruled out probable cause for rebellion and “did not speak for the broader issue of the appropriateness of declaring martial law at that time, at that place.”

Click Philippine Star.

Court junks rebellion raps vs Ampatuans

MANILA, Philippines – UPDATE 2 A Quezon City court has dismissed the rebellion case against members of the Ampatuan clan and other ccused after finding no probable cause that they planned an uprising to foil their arrest for the November 23 Maguindanao massacre.

In an 18-page order, Judge Vivencio Baclig of the Regional Trial Court RTC Branch 77 said the prosecution did not provide enough evidence to establish probable cause in charging Andal Ampatuan Sr. and 23 others with rebellion.

Aside from Ampatuan Sr., the court also dismissed the rebellion case against suspended Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao ARMM Governor Zaldy Ampatuan, Datu Akmad Tato Ampatuan, Datu Anwar Ampatuan and Datu Sajid Islam Ampatuan, Kusain Akmad Sakilan, Jovel Vista Lopez, Rommy Gimba Mamay, Sammy Duyo Villanueva, Ibrahim Tukya Abdulkadir, Samil Manalao Mindo, Goldo B. Ampatuan, Amaikugao Obab Dalgan, Billy Cabaya Gabriel Jr., Abdulla Kaliangat Ampatuan, Moneb Samir Ibrahim, Umpa Ugka Yarya, Manding Abdulkadir, Dekay Idra Ulama, Kapid Gabriel Cabaya, Koka Batong Managilid, Sammy Ganda Macabuat, Duca Lendungan Amban, and Akmad Abdullah Ulilisen.

Click INQUIRER.net.

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Military not letting go of Ampatuans yet

DAVAO CITY, Philippines – The military here refused to release Maguindanao Governor Andal Ampatuan Sr., even if a Quezon court has dismissed the rebellion charges filed against him.

Lieutenant Colonel Randolph Cabangbang, spokesperson of the Eastern Mindanao Command of the Armed Forces of the Philippines, said they could not release Andal Sr., because of the murder cases pending against him and other members of the Ampatuan clan in court.

Earlier, Cabangbang brushed off questions about the supposed release of Andal Sr. who has been held and guarded by government soldiers at the hospital inside the Eastern Mindanao Command in Panacan.

Click Inquirer.net

Comelec reminds bets against campaigning on Holy Week

MANILA, Philippines – The Commission on Elections (Comelec) reminded candidates Friday against campaigning during the Holy Week.

Comelec Resolution 8758 that outlines rules for fair elections practices states that “it is unlawful for any person, whether or not a voter or a candidate, or for any political party, or association of persons to engage on election campaign or partisan political activity on Maundy Thursday, April 1 and Good Friday, April 2,” said spokesman James Jimenez.

“Give yourselves [candidates] a break and make use of the Holy Week to reflect and ponder on all the promises you dished out during the campaign period and on how you intend to do them should you get elected in May,” he said.

Click Inquirer.net

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Comelec asked to take control of Masbate, Maguindanao

MANILA, Philippines – A poll watchdog body on Friday urged the Commission on Elections (Comelec) to put the provinces of Masbate and Maguindanao under its control following a spate of election-related violence there.

The Consortium for Electoral Reforms (CER) said the presence of communist guerrillas and the proliferation of warlords, private armies, and intense political rivalries in Maguindanao and Masbate were threatening the conduct of peaceful and credible elections there.

Through its initiative called Vote Peace, the CER said it has monitored 39 incidents of election-related violence nationwide during the January-March 25, 2010 period.

“Nearly every incident has fatality and most of these are election candidates, campaign operators, and security aides of candidates,” the Vote Peace report said.

Click INQUIRER Politics.

Success of RP elections could herald automated polls in Asia

MANILA, Philippines—An international electoral watchdog is coming over to witness the country's first automated elections, and said the success of the polls could herald the coming of automated elections in other parts of Asia.

But on the other hand, the failure of the polls could erode the people’s confidence in the country’s election institution, according to the Asian Network for Free Elections (Anfrel).

Anfrel remains concerned about a repeat of the vote buying and voter intimidation that marred the 2008 Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao elections, which it had observed, and said the country should learn from that experience.

Click INQUIRER Politics.

Shoddy ballots: sign of dagdag-bawas

GOTCHA By Jarius Bondoc

It’s useless for the Comelec to downplay the lack of printer’s security marks in 1.7 million ballots of the Muslim Autonomous Region (ARMM). Voters rightly suspect the makings of dagdag-bawas (vote padding-shaving). Supposedly it does not matter that the National Printing Office was unable to embed security signs. The Comelec says that it and automation supplier Smartmatic-TIM have their own barcodes and serial numbers anyway. Still the main question is left unanswered: why the ARMM? That the unsecured ballots are the ones for the region is precisely the point. ARMM is where dirty Comelec operators sell false canvasses by the hundreds of thousands of votes for tens of millions of pesos to presidential and senatorial hopefuls.

There are many ways to rig the May 2010 count. Easiest is to repeat the modus operandi in the 2008 ARMM voting, when automation was tested. In some precincts voters were given mere photocopies of the ballot. Poll cheats filled up the genuine ones, for automated tally by precinct count optical scanners, the same PCOS that will be used nationwide in May. In other ARMM areas automation was deferred on various pretenses. Usual manual counts were made of manufactured votes. In yet other zones voters were terrorized to not vote, the easier to misuse their ballots. Gov. Zaldy Ampatuan handily was reelected, with his entire slate of assemblymen. The three ruses — fake ballots, no automation, terrorism — can still be employed in May along with a fourth: rigged automation.

Click Jarius Bondoc.

NBI: 4,000 firearms still in the hands of Ampatuan followers

Government agents on Monday said there are at least 3,000 to 4,000 loose firearms believed to be still in the possession of supporters of the powerful Ampatuan clan in Maguindanao province.

Ricardo Diaz of the National Bureau of Investigation’s (NBI) Counter Terrorism Unit said they have started applying for search warrants in several courts in the province to retrieve these weapons.

Click GMANews.TV.

IF only Palaka presidential candidate Gilbert Teodoro did his job well as the former DND Secretary, perhaps this problem wouldn’t have escalated under the presidentita’s term. Turning a blind eye to issues such as these, make voters only think, what if there are larger, more controversial issues that will face a Gibo administration? Will he just close his eyes out of consideration for political alliances and connections?

After all, as Toto Mangudadatu himself said, when he informed Teodoro that he was running for Maguindanao governor, all Teodoro did was just try to dissuade him for running. Teodoro didn’t even order the forces under the DND to provide extra security to the Mangudadatus, or at least implement more rigorous security/monitoring procedures in Maguindanao to put the Ampatuans in their place. This is why the Maguindanao massacre happened. And it happened under Teodoro’s watch.

Phil. Star Editorial: Expulsion is not enough

Three years after the midterm polls, the Commission on Elections has expelled Lintang Bedol and permanently barred him from holding public office. Bedol was the Comelec supervisor in Maguindanao who said he misplaced election returns for the 2007 senatorial race. He later reported recovering the missing ERs but was unable to explain what happened. Maguindanao gave the opposition’s Senate slate an incredible zero vote, and Koko Pimentel was dislodged from the 12th and final slot in the winner’s circle in the nationwide count.

Click Phil. Star.

SC: Mar Roxas is duly elected LP president

Vice presidential bet Sen. Manuel “Mar” Roxas II is the duly elected president of the Liberal Party (LP), the Supreme Court ruled on Wednesday.

In a 12-page decision, the court junked the petition filed by expelled LP president, former Environment Secretary Jose “Lito” Atienza Jr., to invalidate Roxas’ election as party president.

Instead, the SC said the Commission on Elections (Comelec) did not abuse its discretion when it upheld in June 18, 2008 Roxas’ election without ruling on Atienza’s expulsion from the party.

Click GMANews.TV.

MEANWHILE…

Comelec sacks Bedol, finally

MANILA, Philippines—The Commission on Elections finally dismissed Maguindanao election supervisor Lintang Bedol three years after he made a mockery of his duties.

His dismissal came amid reports that Bedol would surface in time for the May 10 polls to commit fraud.

The Comelec en banc, in a resolution written by Chairman Jose Melo, also barred Bedol from government service and forfeited his benefits and retirement package.

In addition, the poll body ordered its law department to file criminal charges against Bedol, who was accused of manipulating the results of the May 2007 elections in Maguindanao and was relieved from his duties in the aftermath of the scandal.

Click INQUIRER.net

LP political campaigner killed in N. Cotabato

KIDAPAWAN CITY – A political campaigner was gunned down while on his way home on Thursday afternoon in Carmen town in North Cotabato.

Liberal Party’s Edwin Bandila, a Maguindanaon, was on a motorcycle with his wife when he was shot and killed by still unidentified assailants about 5:30 p.m. in front of the Carmen municipal cemetery.

Carmen police are still investigating the motive behind killing of Bandila who is also a close friend and supporter of North Cotabato Vice Governor Manny Piñol.

Click GMANews.TV.

68 Ampatuans in Maguindanao elections

BY CAROLYN O. ARGUILLAS MindaNews

DAVAO CITY: The Ampatuans, Mangudadatus, Midtimbangs, Sinsuats, Masturas and Sangkis comprise the majority among Maguindanao’s 879 candidates running for 374 posts in the May 2010 elections— two congressional representatives to Congress, one governor, one vice-governor, 10 provincial board members, 36 mayors, 36 vice mayors and 288 municipal board members or councilors.

The Ampatuans lead the list of  candidates with 50 carrying the same surname, at least 23 of them directly related to the patriarch, Datu Andal Ampatuan Sr., and 18 with Ampatuan as middle name, according to records of the Commission on Elections.

Among the Ampatuans running are the patriarch Ampatuan Sr., the three-term governor of Maguindanao who resigned in January 2009 and returned as OIC (officer-in-charge) governor  in late 2009 (he was OIC governor when the November 23, 2009 massacre in Ampatuan town happened).

Click 68 Ampatuans in Maguindanao elections.

Sign peace covenant, Army asks candidates

SHARIFF AGUAK, Maguindanao—The military asked candidates in the province to enter into a peace covenant to prevent bloodshed during the elections.

Col. Herbert Yambing, deputy commander of the military-led Joint Security and Coordination Center (JSCC), said the peace covenant was being pushed at the behest of the Commission on Elections (Comelec).

Maguindanao’s worst election-related violence took place on Nov. 23 when armed men allegedly led by Datu Unsay Mayor Andal Ampatuan Jr. slaughtered 57 people, at least 30 of them journalists.

Yambing said local politicians were receptive to the idea of signing a covenant when they attended a meeting held at the provincial capitol here on Tuesday.

Click INQUIRER Politics.

Ampatuan country gets brief respite under transition governor

SHARIFF AGUAK, Maguindanao—Nariman “Ina” Ambolodto somehow doesn’t fit in the office of Andal Ampatuan Sr., the former governor of this province who is now in a police detention center in nearby General Santos City.

It is an enormous room with three sets of heavy living-room furniture, including leather sofas, and a long, oval 16-seater conference table facing his desk. One side door leads to a dining room with French-inspired chairs, a round table that sits six, and a glass cabinet with wine glasses and delicate china. Another door leads to a spacious toilet with a jacuzzi bath as its centerpiece.

Click ABS-CBN News Online Beta.

Teodoro liable for the arming of Ampatuans — lawyer

DAVAO CITY, Philippines — The lawyer of the Ampatuan clan has called for the filing of rebellion charges against former defense secretary and now presidential aspirant Gilbert Teodoro, Jr. for allowing the arming of the political family, which is now being accused of rebellion by the national government.

Philip Pantojan, one of the lawyers of the Ampatuans, who have been slapped with rebellion charges aside from being tagged in the November 23 Maguindanao massacre, said the national government supplied firearms to the members of the civilian volunteer organizations CVO that allegedly comprised the Ampatuans’ private army in Maguindanao during the watch of Teodoro at the Department of National Defense

Click INQUIRER.net.